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" Don't find a fault, find a remedy " Henry Ford
10th March 2009
19:21pm ALERT: As per our analysis sent out last night and on this page, we have been filled in 1 unit in Cable (Sterling Dollar) at 1.3695. Our comment is that we would buy as close to or around 1.37. We will add to position if we turn back towards 1.45. We will update you on any additional units on this trade.
Positions open and recently closed
Short $ CHF - 1.1675
Closed at 1.1482 at 06:55am
+ 193 points
Long £/$ -
Closed at 1.3875 at 12:45pm
+ 95 points (half unit)
Trade Sheet
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TRADE SETUPS - 13:06pm
We want to buy Cable at about 1.37. Chart explains the set-up. At this level we have an 0.886 retracement, as well as a 1.618 extension of the last flag on the 15-min chart.
Chart 1: shows the overall count on a 240 minchart
Chart 2: shows the extension and retracement target on the 240-minchart
We want to buy EUR/GBP - betting on a move towards parity. Right now we feel that the market can pull back to the trendline, although it may have to tag touch the 1.618 extension at 0.9286 or even the 78.6% at 0.9330. Either way we are looking for a pullback to buy, betting on a move up towards parity in Euro Sterling.
Chart 1: shows the overall structure on the daily chartchart
Chart 2: shows the extension and target on 30-minchart
12:50pm: please note that I have closed the half unit on Cable for +95 point profit. I will shortly post my analysis on Sterling Dollar.
10:10am FTSE 100 GOING UP 3610 or more
08:50am: Cable is doing its best to suck some longs. There could very well be another little test of the lows from yesterday in the making. I was toying with the idea of selling short Cable on a scalp, but it seems wrong. It hit the 23% of the move from yesterday and a reaction of a good 40 points have played out. I did not do it though. I am positioning myself for a LONG move back to 1.45. Here is the chart I was looking at for a pull-back. I have not added to my long position from yesterday yet.
08:07am: I wont log this trade on the sheet because it is not announced in real-time, but I wanted to show you the wedge pattern here in action - it works fast or not at all... sold short SP500 futures at 685 with 686 stop.....you usually dont have to wait long for a result chart
10th March 2009 - 07:05am
Good morning,
We sent a newsletter out last night at 21:30, listing our positions on TT, as well as what we want to trade. We were short $ CHF, and closed the position a few minutes ago. The chart below shows entry and exit and reason for exit. We never got to add to this position.
The SP500 is wedging in and it still sitting below my simple trend indicator, the 89 MA, on the 60-min chart below. I am tempted to sell short the top of the wedge, but I will wait until Europe opens. Don't forget that at this time in the morning it is Europe, and in particular the DAX and the FTSE that drives the SP500 futures up and down. Well, at least in my opinion.
The Sterling Dollar is probably going to faff about a little at the 78.6% retracement area, but we are still of the opinion that a move to 1.45 is coming. For a more extensive analysis of the pair, please refer to the Sterling Dollar analysis below the 3 horizontal lined up charts. On the 15 min chart (not shown) the pair is making a flag, so even thought the channel line is holding, it is still possible to have another smack down, although we think 1.3750 will hold. This pair can't go up until most of the participants are out!!
Cable looks set to fall to where the order are. The 78.6% retracement is at 1.3825. We got this support and the wedge support to hold the market up.
What is the thinking behind the view of a move up to 1.45? We believe the wedge is a bullish pattern, and we are seeing either a whole new move up in Cable - a wave 2 - or a wave B in a corrective move.
However we label it, we are looking for a move back to 1.45 over the coming 8-10 sessions.
ANALYSIS
