The overall view of the markets are somewhat along the lines of this:
We are currently in a bear market, which will last for a couple of years.
OPEN POSITIONS
At the current point in time, we are in a bear trend. We bounced well off the lows from November 08, the market rallied some 25%. Now we are retracing this move. This is in some camps such a the brilliant analyst/trader John Piper more than a retracement, and he is talking about the FTSE touching 3500.
From a Matrix point of view, the market is expected to make a significant low in the time period from November to March. This is on a large time cycle, which inherently are larger in duration and have a bigger scope for when they will occur.
To be exact the latest the turn is expected to occur is within the next 3 weeks. This should then produce a rally of some substance. The first clue will be when the market take out the highs from the 6th January 2009. Otherwise you may want to brace yourself for some more downside, once this current rally today fizzles out at some point next week, and expect more downside. I hope to get another move lower, a la John Pipers analysis, and then load up with call options for June 09 in the Dow and SP.
That will be all for today. Have a nice weekend, and I will leave you with a great picture. We can call it the picture of the week:
Tom
08:10am
Good morning again, the FTSE trade worked out ok. The index is trading at 4176, as I type this, while the earlier quotes were for it to open at 4205.
I will post charts of the coming 50 minutes
Friday 16th Jan 09 - 06:50am
Good morning,
I will update the site in more detail by 9am.
The Spread Betting companies are calling the DAX and the FTSE up by some 100 points. One interesting aspect of the trade though is that the FTSE's HSBC stock is down heavily in Asia. Once it trades in the UK by 8am, it will be down here too. I wonder what that will do to the banking sector? Maybe calling the FTSE up 100 points is too much? Or an arbitrage opportunity is lurking between the DAX and the FTSE?
MORE ANALYSIS BY 9AM
Tom
text
CHF vs NZD - an unusual pair
All-time high breakout.... watch for a reversal, as it could be a good counter-trend move setting up....
The old high was 1.6550. If we were to move higher from here and come back down again, I will be short below 1.6540.
ANALYSIS
