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" We often discover what will do, by finding out what will not do;
and probably he who has never made a mistake, never made a
discovery" Samuel Smiles
5th March 2009
~PLEASE IGNORE ORDERS BELOW.. as of 14:51 I am 100% flat now......
07:55am:I am selling the Dollar Swiss short at 1.1735. Stop is 1.1773.... chart
ORDER: sell short GBP JPY at 140.52 - stop 141.80 (this is to build a position)
Order: consider selling short Sterling Dollar at some point. The chart looks as if 1.3850 will be seen before bulls step up to protect GBP...
Trade Sheet
UPDATE AT 14:48
I am actually flat all positions. I did not have time to post all my trades as it was fairly fast and furious during the Central Bank announcements. I took in 344 points, and I have posted the broker statement with entry and exit price and time, so you can see where I f#### up and where I didnt, but should have let it run etc etc....
13:14pm
What a fantastic morning it turned out to be with Cable turning dramatically and Sterling Yen. My only posted trade is probably the one which is doing the least well. I am under water by about 20 points. I will let it run. Now I am turning my attention to the US markets.
I got this message from Larry, which I thought I would pass on to you today:
MARCH 5TH -- MARKET WILL BE DOWN ON OPENING --PICK ONE
OF THE CALLS WE SELECTED
IF YOU WANT TO SPECULATE ON STOCKS TURNING UP IN THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS--
PICK ONE --THEY ARE ALL EQUAL IN PROBABILITY
08:54am
We got ECB and BoE out later this morning. I will stand aside for now. I am short $CHF. I am happy to stand aside til the interest rate decisions are made.....
I may have to succumb to my temptation to sell short the GBP CHF at 1.6655, where it is trading right now....
I will post more before the US open...
06:45am
Good morning,
I will update the trade sheet from yesterday in a moment.
It is a quiet morning on many fronts. Asia's indices are largely mixed with Nikkei up and Hang Seng down. When they are pulling in different direction, I stand aside. The Dax had a spectacular rally yesterday. I am pleased with the way the wave chart I showed you paved out for a 200 point move.
I have bought call options for May in both the DAX and the FTSE as a result of this chart. If you are not onboard, you can still get in. Mine are barely in the money yet, but I am betting on a decent rally into May. We are deeply oversold.
Despite being oversold we should not forget that lows in the market tend to be "2 steps forward - 1 step back" formations, so I would NOT chase this market, if you are not onboard a move higher. First, I may be plain wrong. As it is options, at least I only stand to lose my premium. Secondly, I believe you always get a chance to jump on board a new trend.
Let us see what the next 48 hours brings. This is a patience game. We have interest rate decisions today from both ECB and BoE. Then tomorrow we have the "biggie", the Non-Farm Payroll report.
I will get on with the charts now. I will update the site around 9am or sooner.
DAX Index
Comment
The Dax index made two perfectly equal waves (one was 35 points longer than the other, but over 1066 points move, it seems academic), and it could very well be a good support area, especially since we are expecting a turn today/tomorrow/Friday in the markets.
Don't forget though that Friday is Non-Farm Payroll, and will no doubt be a huge trading day.
ANALYSIS
