I am not expecting a low until Tuesday next week in the stock indices. I want to repeat an earlier comment made here. I am expect a very tradeable low over the coming 3 or so weeks. This implication will be a good 2 month rally. The first proof for the rally is the SP500 taking out the highs from the 6th Jan. Right now I am trying to nail the low date, but I got too many variables. Over the weekend I will post some thoughts. I full intend to buy 1000 SP500 calls, which currently are trading at around 14. This rally will catch a lot of people by surprise.
For now I want to wish you a good weekend. Next weekend is the Larry Pesavento 2-day course, which is selling for a bargain of £399. Make sure you sign up, if you can make it. It is a steal at that price. Larry will also provde 12 month email service where you receive his emailed charts as and when he trades them.
Happy Trading
Tom
Update 23:49pm 22nd January 2009
a bit sloppy trading, on the FTSE trade which was 100 points on the good side. Got called away for meeting on comments I made on CNBC :)... Back tomorrow....good night all.....
GREAT QUOTE, ALTHOUGH SOME DISPUTE THE AUTHENTICITY OF THE PASSAGE
“Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalized, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism”
Karl Marx, Das Kapital, 1867
22nd January 2009 - 06:30am
Good morning,
I am as per my open positions long indices. City Index is calling the FTSE 100 index up 90 points and DAX 30 index up 100 pointsThe Dow is currently quoted to open 50 points higher.
IBM and Apple has injected some enthusiasm into the market, and yesterdays rally was just what the bulls needed to ressurect their hopes of a "Obama" bounce. We are of course still deeply entrenched in a bear market, but I am beginning to prepare myself for the possiblity of a 30% rally going into the summer period.
I am on CNBC today at 07:45 to 08:15, apparently doing two hits on "market strategy". I am not sure what that entails, and CNBC has not told me either, so it may be fun to watch!!.
Yesterday was a little tricky, trying to get myself positioned for a swing long, but on the 2nd attempt the rally gained some traction. Annoyingly March Crude oil did what I wanted it to, but I was out.
More coming later in the morning
Tom
21st January 2009 - 06:32am
Good morning,
Asia is very weak this morning, and althought the Dow is being called up + 100 on IBM results, the market is still vulnerable. I have never seen the DAX take 10 straight losing days in a row. If we close down today, it will be losing day no 11 in a row. The odds of that are slim, but with Asia so weak, anything can happen.
The SP500 is toying with 813 this morning. I think we will see some buying today in the US, especially if Europe begins to support. BUT EUROPE could well be weak in the morning as margin calls hit customers, before we see any buying coming in.
I wil keep the 813 level as my bullish/bearish dividing line, so as we are trading at 811 at this point in time, I still technically favour more downside. But I can't help thinking that we could have seen a temporary selling climax last night in the Dow/SP500, and the Dax may just break the spell and not make it 11 straight losing days. As a matter of fact the only time I remember seeing something worse than this was the end of the bear market low in 2003, when the FTSE 100 had 13 straight losing days. That was the low for the next 6 years.
I have closed my Crude Oil March position. The market completely erased the earlier rally it had. The set-up was fine, but there was no follow-through.
I will probably post some currency analysis later today
Happy Trading
Tom Hougaard
20th January 2009 - 13:30am
I am long Crude Oil on a divergence. Be careful because the contract going off now and the contract which will become the new front month has a huge spread, as you can see from the charts below:
The chart below is the month going off the board now, currently at $33.91
The chart below is the new front month, currently trading at $40.57
20th January 2009 - 06:32am
Good morning,
In last weeks newsletter I wrote about the Head & Shoulder formation having formed. Well, guess what? As you and I lay asleep, the US dollar has plunged to new lows for the year against Sterling(£). In other words, $ is strengthening, and the Sterling £ is weakening.... just to make sure you know what way I am headed!!!!
More later
Tom
15:37pm
The FTSE 100 is now targeting a double buttom in the next 3 weeks. The first leg down was 585 points. In an ABC correction we are looking at 3800 again. A low will be made in the next 3 weeks, and as we draw nearer the time, I will be able to pinpoint it better.... this will be a rally of some size.
noon
I AM SORRY I HAVE NOT POSTED ANYTHING YET. I AM SAT WATCHING BANK SHARES. BARCLAYS OPENED TO THE UPSIDE BY 25%. NOW IT IS DOWN 3%.......
THE USA IS CLOSED TODAY FOR MLK DAY, BUT WE DONT NEED THE US FOR FIREWORKS TODAY. SO THE QUESTION BEGS, SHALL I QUEUE UP TO GET MY MONEY OR DO I GIVE THEM ANOTHER 50% DOWNSIDE..... DARN, THIS IS TOUGH TIMES. SURE WE HAVE BEEN IN CRISIS MODE BEFORE, BUT WHEN YOUR VERY SUBSISTENCE DEPENDS ON A BANK STAYING AFLOAT, IT CAN BE BLOODY DISTRACTING ON YOUR TRADING.......
Monday 19th January 2009
Sunday night 23:04pm
What stock can recover from such a slump?
Barclays on Friday took the extraordinary step of declaring its profits for last year were better than expected in an effort to quell concerns that had triggered a 25 per cent plunge in its share price.
The UK’s third largest bank said 2008 profit before tax for the year, reflecting costs, impairments and market valuations, would be “well ahead” of the £5.3bn forecast by analysts.
Barclays was not due to report its results until February 17.
The bank, with a market value of £8.2bn at Friday’s close, said it knew of no reason why its share price had fallen. The UK four-month ban on short selling of stocks ended on Friday, prompting speculation that Barclays might have been targeted.
ANALYSIS
