Monday morning, 1st July 2019, and the markets in Europe have reacted very positively to news out of Asia that the US and China have reached an agreement. EXCEPT, they haven’t reached an agreement. They have agreed to postpone further tariffs, because they can’t agree, but they most certainly haven’t agreed on anything.
The market seems determined to ignore such minor details. The Dow futures are already up some 200 points, and the DAX is trading at 12,610 at the open at 9 am European time. It is up 210 points.
I quickly add to my winner, and much to my annoyance, I get stopped out for minus 8. I still think I should be short, but I probably got a little carried away with being too aggressive too soon.
I see Dow is making a double top too, on a 1.272 extension. I am not a fan of Fibonacci, but I do watch out for obvious levels, such as this one:
SELLING SHORT DOW ON 1.272 extensionThen I spot this in Crude Oil:
What is astounding on those 3 positions is that all three would turn out to be huge winners, if it wasn’t because I got stopped out at break-even first.
The day got worse:
I am now minus 43 points for the day…
BUT IF YOU ARE CONVINCED something will happen, you simply have to get back in. I posted the following:
I then immediately sell short Dow again.
By now I am plus 108.
The next trade makes up for a challenging day, where lots of opportunities were missed.
That is more or less how it came to be a 175 point day.
What is the morale of the story?
- It was a good day, but if I had just sold once at the 1.272 extension, I would have made much more on the Dow short
- If I didn’t have such a tight stop loss on DAX, I would have had the whole down move
- If I hadn’t moved stop loss on crude oil, I would have had the whole move…
Oh well…. you can’t win them all 🙂